Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1637 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1637 ATL 09:15 → ICT 10:26 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2959 ATL 20:45 → ICT 22:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1637 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	ICT 10:26	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 828 Delta	ATL 15:16	ICT 16:34	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2959 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	ICT 22:01	21%	6%	1.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON