Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2952 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2952 ATL 08:59 → IND 10:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2497 ATL 17:21 → IND 19:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:59	IND 10:31	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:50	IND 18:27	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4484 Southwest	ATL 14:35	IND 16:14	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2657 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	IND 00:20	19%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	IND 22:06	20%	5%	0.9%	72%
F9 2497 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:21	IND 19:12	25%	10%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON