tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 315 at 18:10, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 315 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:10 JAC 20:04 18% 4% 1.0% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → JAC 18:54DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 8h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 3h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 15:46 → JAC 16:57DL 509 8h 47m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340 3h 49m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 8h 40m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327 3h 52m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 8h 43m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 6h 00m 84% 76%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:23 → JAC 10:30AA 1923 6h 29m 88% 68%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:26 → ORD 14:31UA 745 2h 03m Chicago ORD 16:34 → JAC 18:48UA 1987 7h 22m 91% 62%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883 8h 37m 97% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ATL 15:03 → DFW 16:29AA 3104 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → JAC 19:17AA 3042 6h 14m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON