Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2328 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2328 ATL 07:30 → JAX 08:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2315 ATL 19:31 → JAX 20:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	JAX 08:44	6%	2%	0.9%	89%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	JAX 13:25	14%	3%	0.9%	80%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:48	JAX 12:00	14%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:07	JAX 15:19	19%	4%	1.1%	81%
DL 2440 Delta	ATL 16:34	JAX 17:50	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	JAX 16:35	23%	6%	1.2%	78%
DL 2276 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	JAX 00:09	27%	11%	1.2%	76%
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:18	JAX 23:06	27%	14%	2.4%	55%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	JAX 22:15	29%	14%	1.2%	64%
DL 2315 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:31	JAX 20:48	30%	12%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON