Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2420 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2420 ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 520 ATL 18:58 → JFK 21:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2420 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:42	JFK 10:00	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	JFK 11:39	15%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	JFK 13:20	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	17%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:36	JFK 20:03	20%	6%	0.7%	76%
DL 1575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:27	JFK 17:56	22%	7%	0.7%	77%
DL 1632 Delta	ATL 22:33	JFK 00:46	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 4732 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	JFK 11:50	25%	8%	1.6%	74%
B6 1520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 10:10	JFK 12:32	28%	11%	1.5%	74%
B6 120 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:19	JFK 16:39	32%	16%	1.6%	68%
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 18:58	JFK 21:25	36%	17%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON