Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 193 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 193 ATL 07:03 → LAS 08:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1115 ATL 21:32 → LAS 23:04 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 193 Southwest	ATL 07:03	LAS 08:24	10%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	14%	2%	0.4%	86%
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	17%	2%	0.4%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:05	17%	3%	0.4%	80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	LAS 14:50	19%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:47	LAS 17:02	22%	7%	0.6%	81%
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	LAS 17:05	23%	7%	0.6%	78%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:44	LAS 09:59	23%	6%	1.0%	70%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	LAS 20:15	24%	11%	0.9%	76%
DL 825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	LAS 22:35	25%	8%	0.8%	67%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LAS 21:14	26%	10%	0.8%	63%
WN 234 Southwest	ATL 17:30	LAS 18:59	31%	11%	1.3%	no record
F9 1115 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:32	LAS 23:04	36%	13%	3.1%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON