Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 895 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 895 ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2221 ATL 20:03 → LAX 21:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	11%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:17	LAX 08:53	13%	2%	0.5%	68%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	14%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	15%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:50	LAX 20:21	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	LAX 17:20	16%	4%	0.5%	69%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	16%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	17%	3%	0.5%	86%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:11	LAX 12:05	18%	6%	0.9%	74%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	18%	5%	0.5%	77%
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:45	LAX 19:14	22%	8%	1.2%	69%
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	25%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 20:03	LAX 21:51	28%	9%	0.9%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	1h 15m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	6h 43m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	1h 03m Las Vegas	LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696	6h 24m	86%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON