Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4809 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4809 ATL 07:14 → LGA 09:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3454 ATL 15:11 → LGA 17:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4809 Republic	ATL 07:14	LGA 09:21	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	7%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 11:36	LGA 14:05	11%	5%	1.8%	77%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	12%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	12%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	12%	5%	1.3%	72%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 14:56	LGA 17:24	13%	6%	2.6%	no record
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	14%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:27	17%	7%	0.9%	68%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	17%	6%	2.4%	67%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:54	19%	6%	1.0%	71%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:53	LGA 00:15	24%	14%	3.6%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:11	LGA 17:32	28%	15%	4.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON