Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3040 at 09:48 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3040 ATL 09:48 → LIT 10:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2701 ATL 19:09 → LIT 19:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:48	LIT 10:28	12%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:32	LIT 17:12	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:14	LIT 15:49	16%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 2083 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	LIT 23:14	21%	6%	1.1%	84%
DL 2701 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:09	LIT 19:44	23%	7%	2.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON