Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 866 ATL 16:45 → MCI 18:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2911 ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 866 Southwest	ATL 16:45	MCI 18:05	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MCI 10:07	16%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MCI 12:12	17%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:19	MCI 16:29	20%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:38	MCI 21:54	21%	5%	1.1%	84%
DL 1130 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	MCI 20:56	24%	5%	1.5%	79%
DL 2911 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	MCI 23:58	25%	5%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON