Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 236 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 236 ATL 08:00 → MCO 09:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2881 ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 236 Southwest	ATL 08:00	MCO 09:51	8%	2%	4.5%	no record
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:58	13%	2%	4.4%	86%
DL 1562 Delta Flight history →	ATL 01:16	MCO 02:36	14%	4%	16.7%	73%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:29	MCO 08:08	15%	5%	7.1%	79%
WN 3549 Southwest	ATL 11:35	MCO 13:11	16%	4%	13.2%	no record
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:00	MCO 07:34	16%	6%	7.1%	56%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	18%	3%	4.6%	85%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	18%	4%	4.7%	85%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	18%	5%	1.2%	73%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	19%	4%	13.3%	81%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:56	MCO 14:23	21%	5%	4.3%	77%
WN 239 Southwest	ATL 18:40	MCO 20:16	22%	6%	1.5%	no record
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	23%	7%	1.4%	57%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	26%	7%	1.3%	59%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	26%	7%	1.4%	63%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:54	27%	9%	1.4%	61%
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:02	MCO 23:49	27%	16%	3.5%	49%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	MCO 00:15	27%	9%	1.3%	68%
DL 1302 Delta	ATL 21:51	MCO 23:23	28%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	MCO 22:20	32%	9%	1.6%	57%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	33%	10%	1.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON