Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 240 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 240 ATL 08:32 → MDW 09:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2779 ATL 16:37 → MDW 18:02 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 240 Southwest	ATL 08:32	MDW 09:29	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	MDW 10:42	12%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 187 Southwest	ATL 13:05	MDW 14:05	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:29	MDW 15:30	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 1076 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	MDW 22:15	18%	5%	1.1%	77%
WN 454 Southwest	ATL 17:10	MDW 18:10	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2779 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:37	MDW 18:02	23%	13%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON