Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1149 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1149 ATL 08:30 → MEM 08:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2501 ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1149 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MEM 08:57	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	MEM 12:32	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	MEM 10:32	12%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MEM 15:09	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 733 Delta	ATL 13:48	MEM 14:11	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:33	MEM 16:56	16%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	MEM 18:16	19%	5%	0.8%	78%
DL 3020 Delta	ATL 20:11	MEM 20:39	20%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 2501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:50	MEM 23:12	22%	7%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON