Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2836 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2836 ATL 07:25 → MIA 09:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4406 ATL 15:05 → MIA 17:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MIA 09:26	13%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	17%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	MIA 11:03	19%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1912 American	ATL 08:16	MIA 10:16	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MIA 13:07	22%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 10:53	MIA 12:53	26%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	26%	5%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:35	MIA 15:43	26%	6%	0.7%	63%
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	27%	9%	1.0%	69%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	MIA 16:35	30%	9%	0.8%	63%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 17:48	MIA 19:44	30%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:43	MIA 22:48	31%	13%	2.0%	67%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 18:47	MIA 20:49	31%	10%	1.3%	62%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	32%	12%	1.7%	66%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:05	MIA 17:15	37%	13%	1.3%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON