Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2999 ATL 08:10 → MKE 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2388 ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	MKE 09:12	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:49	MKE 11:51	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	MKE 13:50	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	MKE 16:59	13%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 1268 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	MKE 23:43	16%	5%	1.0%	81%
DL 2388 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	MKE 21:02	16%	5%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON