Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:53	MSN 12:54	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:32	MSN 22:38	17%	5%	1.1%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39DL 987	2h 26m Boston	BOS 12:05 → MSN 13:59DL 5603 · flown by Republic	7h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599	5h 53m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	95%	83%
American Details →	ATL 08:18 → CLT 09:50AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MSN 13:42AA 2443	6h 24m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSN 16:47DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	6h 47m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 21:02DL 5444 · flown by Endeavor	6h 34m	99%	72%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:30 → MSN 11:00AA 1141	5h 59m	90%	68%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	51m Denver	DEN 10:57 → MSN 14:07UA 2368	6h 22m	76%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON