Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2668 ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2654 ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2668 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MSP 09:00	7%	2%	0.4%	92%
DL 2960 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:44	MSP 10:18	10%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 2090 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	MSP 11:31	11%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 2901 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	MSP 13:50	11%	2%	0.4%	87%
F9 3045 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:43	MSP 08:35	11%	7%	0.9%	64%
DL 1310 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MSP 00:39	13%	5%	0.4%	78%
DL 2825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:31	MSP 16:07	13%	3%	0.4%	85%
DL 2981 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:38	MSP 19:15	15%	4%	0.5%	74%
DL 2654 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:06	MSP 20:46	17%	5%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON