Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2542 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2542 ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1371 ATL 15:52 → MSY 16:54 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MSY 11:37	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 5090 Southwest	ATL 09:50	MSY 10:40	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	MSY 09:50	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	MSY 14:17	16%	3%	0.7%	83%
WN 2117 Southwest	ATL 15:00	MSY 15:40	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	MSY 15:57	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 678 Delta	ATL 17:56	MSY 18:34	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1450 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	MSY 20:29	22%	8%	1.9%	74%
DL 2224 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:35	MSY 23:05	23%	7%	1.0%	83%
F9 1371 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:52	MSY 16:54	26%	12%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON