Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2490 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2490 ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2423 ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:53	OKC 11:08	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:50	OKC 14:56	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 2784 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:05	OKC 19:16	17%	6%	10.7%	82%
DL 2423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:44	OKC 23:52	21%	7%	4.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON