Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1147 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1147 ATL 08:55 → ORD 10:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 616 ATL 16:54 → ORD 18:09 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	ORD 10:06	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 1762 American	ATL 07:20	ORD 08:34	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1955 United	ATL 07:59	ORD 09:08	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1288 United	ATL 11:13	ORD 12:23	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	ORD 12:27	20%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	24%	7%	1.1%	71%
AA 1041 American	ATL 10:51	ORD 12:00	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:28	ORD 11:52	24%	10%	1.2%	73%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:26	ORD 14:31	25%	8%	0.6%	81%
AA 2620 American	ATL 12:09	ORD 13:19	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	26%	8%	0.7%	74%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:13	ORD 14:25	28%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:10	ORD 20:20	30%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 3059 American	ATL 14:12	ORD 15:26	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2096 American	ATL 20:13	ORD 21:35	32%	10%	1.9%	no record
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	33%	8%	0.9%	62%
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:31	ORD 20:41	34%	8%	1.9%	60%
UA 1850 United	ATL 17:11	ORD 18:16	36%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:21	ORD 18:46	37%	7%	0.8%	49%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:19	ORD 18:45	38%	13%	1.7%	57%
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 16:54	ORD 18:09	40%	9%	1.1%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON