Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2755 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2755 ATL 08:05 → ORF 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2984 ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	ORF 09:46	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:26	ORF 14:06	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:42	ORF 16:22	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	ORF 19:39	17%	6%	0.7%	69%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:09	ORF 15:00	17%	8%	0.9%	79%
DL 2338 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:32	ORF 00:19	19%	9%	0.8%	80%
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	22%	9%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON