Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 539 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 691 ATL 19:41 → PDX 22:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:27	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	PDX 18:49	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	15%	4%	1.0%	83%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:41	PDX 22:04	19%	6%	1.3%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 55m	91%	81%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 10m Denver	DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644	7h 13m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	7h 13m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON