Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3270 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:01 → PHL 08:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 17:02 → PHL 19:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:01	PHL 08:19	6%	3%	0.9%	93%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:04	PHL 10:05	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	9%	3%	0.8%	91%
YX 4755 Republic	ATL 11:57	PHL 14:16	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	PHL 12:15	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	PHL 14:15	14%	3%	0.6%	73%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:31	PHL 08:39	14%	5%	1.2%	71%
YX 4725 Republic	ATL 14:03	PHL 16:25	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 5250 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 18:20	PHL 20:47	15%	7%	2.6%	94%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	PHL 15:58	15%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	17%	5%	1.1%	78%
DL 1174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:41	PHL 21:42	19%	5%	1.8%	76%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	PHL 19:51	20%	6%	0.8%	62%
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:12	PHL 22:28	29%	16%	2.1%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	PHL 19:20	33%	15%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON