Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1331 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1331 ATL 07:40 → PHX 08:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 929 ATL 20:50 → PHX 21:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1331 Southwest	ATL 07:40	PHX 08:53	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	14%	3%	0.5%	81%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:20	PHX 12:16	16%	3%	0.4%	81%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	16%	4%	0.5%	83%
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	PHX 17:39	18%	6%	0.5%	73%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:50	PHX 21:49	23%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON