Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1363 ATL 08:52 → PIT 10:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2583 ATL 19:49 → PIT 21:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:52	PIT 10:37	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	PIT 00:22	14%	6%	1.1%	80%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:01	PIT 18:45	14%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	PIT 21:35	16%	6%	2.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON