Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3103 ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3021 ATL 20:38 → PNS 20:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PNS 08:17	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:45	PNS 12:55	10%	3%	1.0%	87%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:34	PNS 10:46	12%	4%	1.4%	89%
DL 3086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	PNS 21:59	13%	6%	1.3%	83%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:55	PNS 17:10	13%	5%	1.7%	82%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	PNS 14:41	13%	5%	1.3%	84%
DL 3021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:38	PNS 20:51	17%	6%	1.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON