Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2147 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2147 ATL 10:05 → PVD 12:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2064 ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	PVD 12:34	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	PVD 16:29	12%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 2064 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	PVD 22:46	20%	6%	1.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON