Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	PWM 12:50	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2138 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:25	PWM 21:05	20%	6%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	6h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:57DL 1646	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 55m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00DL 2420	2h 45m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	6h 37m	99%	73%
American Details →	ATL 16:54 → ORD 18:09AA 616	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → PWM 23:57AA 4504 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	87%	71%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	2h 56m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	7h 16m	95%	70%
United Details →	ATL 13:26 → ORD 14:31UA 745	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401	8h 15m	96%	68%
American Details →	ATL 16:22 → CLT 17:46AA 5175 · flown by PSA	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 20:30 → PWM 22:47AA 2120	6h 25m	90%	62%
United Details →	ATL 18:19 → EWR 20:36UA 2247	1h 14m Newark	EWR 21:50 → PWM 23:12UA 1397	4h 53m	77%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	ATL 18:58 → JFK 21:25B6 520	1h 10m New York	JFK 22:35 → PWM 00:16 +1B6 308	5h 18m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON