Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1699 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1699 ATL 08:30 → RDU 09:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1670 ATL 22:30 → RDU 00:03 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	RDU 09:57	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	RDU 11:38	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:12	RDU 12:42	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:28	RDU 15:57	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:05	RDU 14:30	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 8909 Delta	ATL 13:07	RDU 14:38	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:52	RDU 17:25	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:40	RDU 19:15	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 2938 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	RDU 00:41	18%	6%	0.6%	66%
F9 1168 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:14	RDU 12:54	20%	7%	1.0%	68%
DL 1518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	RDU 20:57	20%	9%	0.8%	74%
DL 3244 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:25	RDU 22:00	21%	8%	0.8%	74%
F9 1670 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:30	RDU 00:03	32%	13%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON