Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2650 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2650 ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1263 ATL 19:55 → RIC 21:36 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	RIC 11:19	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	RIC 15:20	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:49	RIC 17:30	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	RIC 19:35	17%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 1175 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	RIC 00:17	20%	6%	0.8%	82%
DL 1263 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	RIC 21:36	21%	7%	1.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON