Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:57	RNO 21:42	27%	8%	1.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	2h 29m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	2h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 54m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	99%	84%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 42m Denver	DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604	9h 26m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → RNO 21:57DL 1607	7h 02m	91%	80%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 14m Denver	DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167	6h 54m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON