Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 725 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 725 ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 819 ATL 19:51 → SAN 21:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SAN 09:26	17%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	SAN 13:08	18%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:02	SAN 11:25	19%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SAN 19:30	22%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	SAN 17:10	23%	5%	0.5%	77%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:51	SAN 21:25	28%	6%	1.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON