Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1676 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1676 ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2893 ATL 19:09 → SAT 20:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	SAT 09:43	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	SAT 13:38	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SAT 18:29	18%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	SAT 16:05	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 1508 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	SAT 23:21	21%	6%	1.1%	80%
DL 2893 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:09	SAT 20:37	25%	7%	1.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON