Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3011 ATL 08:15 → SAV 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2425 ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SAV 09:16	7%	1%	0.7%	91%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:47	SAV 10:54	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:44	SAV 14:50	12%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	SAV 16:26	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SAV 18:59	14%	4%	0.8%	71%
DL 2860 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	SAV 23:53	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
DL 2425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:06	SAV 21:17	17%	6%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON