Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1481 ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2842 ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	SDF 12:31	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	SDF 10:29	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:46	SDF 15:05	13%	2%	0.7%	79%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	SDF 17:15	15%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 2831 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SDF 19:13	17%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 2624 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:50	SDF 00:14	17%	5%	1.0%	85%
DL 2842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:39	SDF 22:07	18%	5%	1.2%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON