Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 444 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 444 ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 714 ATL 19:25 → SEA 21:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	SEA 09:54	12%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 774 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	SEA 12:13	14%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 629 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	SEA 14:50	14%	3%	0.5%	82%
AS 377 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 07:00	SEA 09:26	16%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:28	SEA 16:43	18%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 903 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	SEA 23:59	22%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	SEA 19:05	22%	5%	0.6%	70%
AS 348 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 08:54	SEA 11:20	23%	3%	0.7%	69%
AS 218 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 16:18	SEA 18:46	27%	6%	0.8%	62%
DL 714 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	SEA 21:46	30%	8%	1.0%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 43m	96%	83%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	87%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 34m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON