Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 571 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 495 ATL 19:25 → SFO 21:24 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 06:30	SFO 08:35	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SFO 10:00	18%	3%	0.4%	81%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	SFO 11:33	20%	4%	0.4%	70%
DL 656 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:48	SFO 23:57	22%	7%	0.6%	70%
UA 2866 United	ATL 17:59	SFO 20:15	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	SFO 17:31	28%	7%	0.4%	66%
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	29%	14%	1.1%	53%
DL 681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:36	SFO 21:41	33%	9%	1.0%	58%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	SFO 21:24	35%	9%	0.9%	51%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	1h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689	7h 17m	92%	71%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 14m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 19m	90%	70%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	57m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 59m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON