Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 10:25, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 809 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	SJC 11:30	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:50	SJC 21:41	19%	6%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 18:00 → SJC 19:15DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	9h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	8h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	3h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087	10h 39m	100%	85%
American Details →	ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	10h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:38 → LAX 17:20DL 301	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 20:44 → SJC 22:05DL 1420	9h 27m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 20m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	10h 41m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON