Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 830 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 830 ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 453 ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 830 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SLC 10:14	9%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 387 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	SLC 12:10	13%	2%	0.4%	92%
DL 663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:56	SLC 13:50	15%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	SLC 15:51	17%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 653 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	SLC 19:56	17%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 526 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	SLC 17:18	18%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:34	SLC 21:37	21%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 453 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	SLC 00:26	21%	6%	0.5%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 16:01 → DEN 17:08DL 493	1h 03m Denver	DEN 18:11 → SLC 19:48DL 1623	5h 47m	85%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON