Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	14%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:26	SMF 21:27	24%	6%	1.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 44m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	8h 57m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	3h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574	10h 20m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 18:49 → SMF 20:23DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 49m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 01m	94%	82%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	3h 36m Denver	DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662	9h 32m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574	7h 13m	72%	60%
Alaska Details →	ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 19:47 → SMF 21:36AS 681	8h 18m	74%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON