Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3196 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3196 ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2997 ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	7%	2%	1.2%	94%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	SRQ 11:48	12%	3%	1.1%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:01	SRQ 16:37	17%	4%	1.3%	80%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:20	SRQ 19:57	17%	5%	1.4%	76%
DL 2997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	SRQ 22:27	19%	6%	1.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON