Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1400 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1400 ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1403 ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	STL 09:06	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 335 Southwest	ATL 08:53	STL 09:41	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 192 Southwest	ATL 12:20	STL 13:10	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:52	STL 12:30	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	STL 14:27	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:52	STL 16:39	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 2833 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	STL 20:37	17%	6%	1.9%	76%
DL 1403 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	STL 23:20	18%	5%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON