Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1899 at 09:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1899 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	STT 13:49	22%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 37m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	8h 38m	95%	80%
American Details →	ATL 08:18 → CLT 09:50AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	8h 06m	100%	79%
American Details →	ATL 07:00 → MIA 09:05AA 3190	1h 00m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	6h 02m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON