Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2605 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2605 ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3054 ATL 21:16 → TPA 23:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	7%	2%	4.2%	93%
WN 1219 Southwest	ATL 09:00	TPA 10:40	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	12%	2%	3.1%	91%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:35	TPA 14:08	14%	4%	1.1%	80%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	TPA 11:37	14%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	16%	3%	1.1%	85%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:03	TPA 15:35	19%	5%	1.1%	75%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:18	TPA 17:53	19%	7%	1.1%	74%
WN 2004 Southwest	ATL 18:35	TPA 20:15	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:16	TPA 18:49	22%	7%	1.0%	66%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	22%	9%	1.9%	72%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:18	TPA 16:52	22%	6%	1.0%	70%
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	23%	7%	1.1%	69%
DL 1560 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TPA 00:29	23%	9%	1.3%	72%
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:04	TPA 17:43	25%	14%	2.1%	66%
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 20:20	TPA 21:54	25%	8%	1.4%	no record
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:16	TPA 23:03	28%	14%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON