Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2754 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2754 ATL 09:20 → TUL 10:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2043 ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	TUL 10:16	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	TUL 12:04	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:43	TUL 16:44	18%	4%	0.8%	72%
DL 2043 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	TUL 22:18	22%	6%	1.5%	85%
DL 4837 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 16:47	TUL 17:56	33%	17%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON