Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 937 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:59	TUS 12:35	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1251 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	TUS 20:38	25%	8%	1.5%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	3h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest	9h 14m	99%	83%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 15m Denver	DEN 15:43 → TUS 16:46UA 2049	8h 36m	98%	77%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 17m Houston	IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa	6h 02m	93%	76%
United Details →	ATL 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 340	1h 24m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	6h 47m	93%	74%
United Details →	ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 10:20 → TUS 12:40UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	97%	73%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → TUS 11:10AA 2187	8h 09m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON