Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 98% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	3h 40m Houston	IAH 11:55 → TVC 15:59UA 6261 · flown by Mesa	8h 54m	98%	98%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	2h 16m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 30m	97%	78%
United Details →	ATL 15:30 → ORD 16:57UA 516	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	6h 55m	93%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON