Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1817 ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1437 ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1817 Delta	ATL 09:48	TYS 10:49	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:44	TYS 14:46	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:47	TYS 16:53	16%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 1437 Delta	ATL 21:27	TYS 22:29	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 4724 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 12:17	TYS 13:16	20%	7%	0.0%	80%
DL 5203 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:06	TYS 20:08	27%	13%	1.2%	73%
DL 5416 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:45	TYS 18:53	42%	17%	4.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON