Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:30, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:30	ATL 08:42	6%	3%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	4h 22m	93%	80%
American Details →	ATW 05:39 → ORD 06:52AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 08:28 → ATL 11:33AA 851	4h 54m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	4h 47m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	ATW 17:20 → DTW 19:44DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 20:55 → ATL 23:09DL 2294	4h 49m	87%	70%
American Details →	ATW 06:06 → DFW 08:54AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:01 → ATL 14:16AA 3104	7h 10m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON