Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5470 at 17:17, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5470 PSA	ATW 17:17	CLT 20:48	17%	8%	2.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:30 → ATL 08:42DL 1436	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	7h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 24m	94%	83%
American Details →	ATW 05:39 → ORD 06:52AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:07 → CLT 11:15AA 411	4h 36m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 14:54 → CLT 16:48DL 1429	4h 39m	91%	74%
American Details →	ATW 06:06 → DFW 08:54AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → CLT 13:24AA 2493	6h 18m	81%	61%
United Details →	ATW 14:40 → ORD 16:00UA 4383 · flown by GoJet	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	5h 49m	85%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	4h 45m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON